AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

 
 FXUS65 KLKN 241109
 AFDLKN
 
 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
 309 AM PST TUE NOV 24 2009
 
 .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE GREAT
 BASIN PRODUCING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...RELATIVELY LIGHT
 WINDS...ALONG WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.
 A WEAK SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRUSH ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA ON
 FRIDAY...WITH A SECOND...AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER SYSTEM...MOVING
 INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA ON SATURDAY. &&
 
 .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
 CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY...WITH LIGHT
 WINDS...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...AND NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES.
 WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH HIGHS
 EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO AROUND 10 DEGREES F ABOVE NORMAL BY
 THANKSGIVING DAY. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 5-10 DEGREES
 BELOW NORMAL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE NIGHTS HOWEVER.
 
 .LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT 
 BETWEEN THE MODELS IN THE LONG TERM. BASIC SCENARIO SHOWS A LOW 
 PRESSURE SYSTEM DIGGING DOWN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR THE 
 WEEKEND. AFTERWARDS...THE ECMWF MODEL INDICATES A SUSTAINED RIDGE 
 PATTERN WHILE THE GFS MODEL ENTERTAINS THE IDEA OF A THIRD SHORT 
 WAVE MONDAY NIGHT.
 
 AFTER A DRY THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS SEEM TO AGREE WITH INTRODUCING 
 QPF ON FRIDAY ALL ACROSS THE NORTH. LOW PRESSURE DIGS FURTHER SOUTH 
 PER GFS MODEL AND PERHAPS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE ECMWF OR 
 NAM...HOWEVER PROBABLY WOULD MAKE ONLY SEVERAL HOURS DIFFERENCE ON 
 FRIDAY BEFORE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. BEST DYNAMICS ARE WELL 
 NORTH...AND TRACK OF THE FIRST WAVE IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT 
 PRECIPITATION. EXISTING FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR THE MOST 
 PART. WILL NEED TO ADJUST POPS A LITTLE BUT WILL KEEP A DRY TREND 
 FOR CENTRAL NEVADA.   
 
 THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW A SECOND SHORTWAVE DIGGING DUE SOUTH 
 THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN SATURDAY. THIS SW MAY BRING SEVERAL INCHES OF 
 ACCUMULATING SNOW TO EASTERN NEVADA. BASED ON CURRENT TRACK SNOW 
 SHOWERS WILL BE HEAVIEST ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CWA. AS THIS SYSTEM 
 EXITS SUNDAY...A RIDGE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BRING DRIER CONDITIONS 
 THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. &&
 
 .AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER THE GREAT 
 BASIN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE 
 EXPECTED. &&
 
 .LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. &&
 
 

 
 96/92/92
 
 

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