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As the week long event
continued, the upper level disturbance located near the four corners became
much better defined with water vapor imagery indicating this feature became
a closed upper level low pressure system. The dynamics from this upper
level low in addition to an area of diffluence aloft between the upper
level low and an inverted trough over Northwest Mexico/Western Texas would
yield another night and morning of excessive rainfall across Southeast
Arizona due to elevated convection. Precipitable water from the 00Z July
28 KTUS sounding was 1.63".
Early in the evening
the first thunderstorms developed over the Gila Mountains of Southwestern
New Mexico and pushed southwest into Greenlee County. This complex of
thunderstorms continued to push southwest as the evening wore on through
Graham, Cochise and then into Southeast Pinal and Eastern Pima county
around midnight. As the thunderstorms moved through portions of Greenlee
County and Graham County, 1 to 3 inches of rain fell in the time span
of a couple of hours causing flash flooding through portions of both Greenlee
and Graham county. As this complex of thunderstorms pushed through Eastern
Pima and Southeast Pinal County, it lost some of its punch but not before
dropping over an inch of rain across the Santa Catalina Mountains just
north of Tucson.
There was still more
to come from two complexes of thunderstorms to move across Eastern Pima
County through midday July 28th. The first complex developed over the
Mogollon Rim around midnight, likely due to another disturbance coming
around the upper level low. The heaviest rainfall from this wave hit across
Southeast Pinal and across the northwest side of the Tucson Metropolitan
Area between 1:30 am and 3:00am. Observed totals from this round were
generally less than one half inch across the Tucson metropolitan area.
This MCS then continued to move into Central Pima County before weakening
around sunrise. After 7 am, another complex of thunderstorms over Graham
County became better organized as it pushed southwest toward the Tucson
metropolitan area. This thunderstorm complex dropped another inch of rainfall
over portions of the Santa Catalina mountain range. The first reports
of river flooding from this event occurred along the Santa Cruz River
in a couple of housing developments in Eloy during the afternoon of July
28th.
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