National Weather Service Tucson Arizona
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
FXUS65 KVEF 241135 AFDVEF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV 335 AM PST TUE NOV 24 2009 .SYNOPSIS...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO SUNNY SKIES AND SLIGHT WARMING ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT WARMING EACH DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .SHORT TERM...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING THROUGH. SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER NORTHERN UTAH WILL LEAD TO SOME LOCALLY GUSTY NORTH WINDS DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AGAIN TODAY MAINLY FROM BULLHEAD CITY TO NEEDLES. MODEL SURFACE GRADIENT AND 850MB WIND PROGS POINT TO WIND SPEEDS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN MONDAY AND WILL NOT ISSUE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE CLOSE BASED SOLELY ON MOS GUIDANCE FOR KIFP. BELIEVE THAT OVERALL WINDS WILL BE JUST BELOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ON LAKE MOHAVE AND WELL BELOW CRITERIA ON LAKE HAVASU AND LAKE MEAD. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY FOR SUNNY SKIES AND SLIGHTLY LESS WIND. THE RIDGE THEN MOVES SLIGHTLY EAST THURSDAY AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. BASED ON SLOWER ECMWF THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL NOT INCREASE ENOUGH FOR ANY WIND CONCERNS YET. ANOTHER DAY OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT WARMING WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY. .LONG TERM...MODELS ARE STARTING TO SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT AND CONTINUITY FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SHOWING A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH AND ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WINDS AS STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS IT CONTINUES SOUTH AND CLOSES OFF OVER ARIZONA. ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS INDICATES VERY GOOD DESCENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW LINING UP JUST EAST OF A 130KT JET CORE ALOFT...ALONG WITH RENO / LAS VEGAS AND ELY / NEEDLES SFC GRADIENTS UP TO 15 MB ON AVERAGE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE CONTINUED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN NORTHERN LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES EARLY SUNDAY NEAR THE LOWS TRACK AND COLDEST TEMPS ALOFT...BUT OTHERWISE...PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE VERY LIMITED. AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN ON SUNDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE...WHICH WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH SEASONAL TEMPS AND RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS SKIES REMAIN RELATIVELY CLEAR AND SURFACE WINDS PERSIST OUT OF THE NORTHEAST...AROUND 10KTS ON AVERAGE.. FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR TO VARYING AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS. && .VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NV...NONE. AZ...NONE. CA...NONE. &&
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