AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

 
 FXUS65 KVEF 241135
 AFDVEF
 
 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
 335 AM PST TUE NOV 24 2009
 
 .SYNOPSIS...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH 
 SOME HIGH CLOUDS ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS DOWN THE COLORADO 
 RIVER VALLEY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO SUNNY SKIES AND 
 SLIGHT WARMING ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY IN 
 SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE 
 NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE 
 FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT WARMING EACH DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. 
 &&
 
 .SHORT TERM...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA TODAY 
 WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING THROUGH. SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER 
 NORTHERN UTAH WILL LEAD TO SOME LOCALLY GUSTY NORTH WINDS DOWN THE 
 COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AGAIN TODAY MAINLY FROM BULLHEAD CITY TO 
 NEEDLES. MODEL SURFACE GRADIENT AND 850MB WIND PROGS POINT TO WIND 
 SPEEDS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN MONDAY AND WILL NOT ISSUE A LAKE WIND 
 ADVISORY ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE CLOSE BASED SOLELY ON MOS GUIDANCE FOR 
 KIFP. BELIEVE THAT OVERALL WINDS WILL BE JUST BELOW LAKE WIND 
 ADVISORY CRITERIA ON LAKE MOHAVE AND WELL BELOW CRITERIA ON LAKE 
 HAVASU AND LAKE MEAD. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY FOR 
 SUNNY SKIES AND SLIGHTLY LESS WIND. THE RIDGE THEN MOVES SLIGHTLY 
 EAST THURSDAY AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. 
 SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF 
 THIS TROUGH. BASED ON SLOWER ECMWF THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL NOT 
 INCREASE ENOUGH FOR ANY WIND CONCERNS YET. ANOTHER DAY OF NEAR 
 NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT WARMING 
 WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY. 
 
 .LONG TERM...MODELS ARE STARTING TO SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT AND 
 CONTINUITY FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SHOWING A DEEP LOW 
 PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH AND ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THE 
 MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WINDS AS STRONG NORTHERLY 
 WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS IT CONTINUES SOUTH AND 
 CLOSES OFF OVER ARIZONA. ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS INDICATES VERY GOOD 
 DESCENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW LINING UP JUST EAST OF A 130KT 
 JET CORE ALOFT...ALONG WITH RENO / LAS VEGAS AND ELY / NEEDLES SFC 
 GRADIENTS UP TO 15 MB ON AVERAGE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE 
 CONTINUED  A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN NORTHERN LINCOLN AND 
 MOHAVE COUNTIES EARLY SUNDAY NEAR THE LOWS TRACK AND COLDEST TEMPS 
 ALOFT...BUT OTHERWISE...PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE VERY 
 LIMITED. AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN ON SUNDAY...NORTHERLY 
 WINDS WILL CONTINUE...WHICH WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW 
 NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE FIRST 
 HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH SEASONAL TEMPS AND RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES 
 EXPECTED NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
 &&
 
 .AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 
 HOURS AS SKIES REMAIN RELATIVELY CLEAR AND SURFACE WINDS PERSIST OUT 
 OF THE NORTHEAST...AROUND 10KTS ON AVERAGE..
 
 FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST 
 CALIFORNIA...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH 
 GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. SKIES WILL BE 
 CLEAR TO VARYING AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS.
 &&
 
 .VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 NV...NONE.
 AZ...NONE.
 CA...NONE.
 &&
 
 

 
 HARRISON/KENNEDY
 
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