AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

 
 FXUS65 KTWC 160914
 AFDTWC
 
 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
 213 AM MST WED MAY 16 2012
 
 .SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL 
 PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS 
 FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF THE 
 AREA.
 
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 .DISCUSSION...STILL LOOKING AT SOME GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS THIS 
 MORNING UNTIL THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES THIS 
 AFTERNOON. EVEN THEN STILL EXPECTING GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS WITH THE 
 STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND A WEAK SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT 
 BASIN TO OUR NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE 
 AREA WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON 
 TEMPERATURES TODAY AND THURSDAY. MODELS WERE SHOWING A LOW PRESSURE 
 TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH THE TAIL END 
 PASSING OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA. THAT SAID...MORE DRY CONDITIONS WITH 
 EVEN STRONGER AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WINDS ON TAP FRIDAY. A 
 FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE POSTED ON THE MORNING FORECAST FOR MUCH 
 OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FOR FRIDAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER 
 SECTION IN THIS PRODUCT FOR MORE DETAILS. OTHERWISE...THE PASSAGE OF 
 THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT DROP IN HIGH 
 TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REGAIN 
 CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR DRY 
 CONDITIONS AND MUCH WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.  
 
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 .AVIATION...SKC THRU THIS AFTERNOON WITH FEW-SCT CLOUDS DEVELOPING 
 AT OR AROUND 10K FT BY LATE AFTERNOON EARLY THIS EVENING EAST OF 
 KTUS. SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING 
 WITH ISOLATED GUSTS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON TO 
 SWLY/WLY AT 10-15 KTS...DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 10 KTS AFTER 
 SUNSET. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
 
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 .FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL 
 PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 KTS 
 RANGE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH GUSTS BECOMING MORE AND MORE LIKELY 
 TOWARD THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO STRONG DAYTIME HEATING. WIND 
 DIRECTION WILL CHANGE FROM EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE MORNING HOURS 
 TO SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AFTER 1100 MST THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE 
 EVENING BEFORE CALMING AND BECOMING TERRAIN DRIVEN BY 2300 MST 
 TONIGHT. FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND 
 CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY...SO WILL BE ISSUING A FIRE 
 WEATHER WATCH FOR FRIDAY WITH THE MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE 
 ENCOMPASSING GRAHAM...GREENLEE...COCHISE...SANTA CRUZ AND EASTERN 
 PIMA COUNTIES. METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH THE ALREADY 
 ACTIVE WILDFIRES TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA MADE THE DECISION FOR A 
 WATCH VERY SIMPLE.
 
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 .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FRIDAY FOR ZONES 146 AND 148
     (GRAHAM...GREENLEE...COCHISE...SANTA CRUZ AND EASTERN PIMA       
      COUNTIES)
 
 

 
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