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Weather Glossary | Discussion with Glossary

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

 
 FXUS65 KTWC 220933
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
233 AM MST SUN NOV 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO PASS NORTH OF OUR AREA.
OTHER THAN SOME OCCASIONAL PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUDS...SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA WILL REMAIN DRY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARM DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NEW
MEXICO WITH THE TAIL END OF THE SYSTEM DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN
ARIZONA. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/PLAINS BY LATE
MONDAY. AS A RESULT...DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.

RIDGING WILL BUILD IN TO THE NORTHWEST OF ARIZONA...MAINLY OVER THE
GREAT BASIN DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH MODELS INDICATING A
WEAK LOW UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE. PLACEMENT OF THIS WEAK LOW DIFFERS
AMONG THE MODELS BUT WE SHOULD NOT SEE MUCH AFFECT ANYWAY WITH TEMPS
REMAINING LEVEL DURING THE TIME FRAME AND THE OCCASIONAL PATCH OF
HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.

TOWARDS THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD AS
ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE PAC NW. BEYOND FRIDAY
THE MODELS DIFFER WITH THE ECMWF DROPPING THE TROUGH MUCH FARTHER
SOUTH AND STRONGER THAN THE GFS. I TRIMMED HIGH TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES FOR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT IF EURO IS CORRECT I AM NOT NEARLY
COLD ENOUGH. PLENTY OF TIME TO MAKE FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS. IN
ADDITION...I ALSO INTRODUCED SINGLE DIGIT POPS FOR SATURDAY AND THIS
MESHES WELL WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

&&

.AVIATION...FEW TO SCT CIRRUS GENERALLY ABOVE 20K FT FROM TIME TO
TIME NEXT 24 HOURS. NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS ARE EXPECTED AT THE
TERMINAL SITES...WITH SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AN EXITING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN A LITTLE
COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WITH DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUING. THERE MAY BE SOME AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
BREEZES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF TUCSON
TODAY. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.




MOLLERE

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON




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