National Weather Service Tucson Arizona
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
FXUS66 KSGX 241117 AFDSGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA 330 AM PST TUE NOV 24 2009 .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES WITH WARMER DAYS THROUGH THURSDAY. LOCAL GUSTY WINDS THROUGH AND BELOW MOUNTAIN CANYONS AND PASSES. COOLER FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES PAST TO THE NORTH. LOCAL GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AGAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .DISCUSSION...FOR SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING SAN DIEGO... ORANGE...SOUTHWEST SAN BERNARDINO AND WEST RIVERSIDE COUNTIES. .SHORT TERM (TODAY-THURSDAY)...SKIES WERE CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WERE OCCURRING BELOW THE PASSES AND CANYONS. MOST GUSTS HAVE BEEN BELOW 35 MPH...HOWEVER ISOLATED STRONGER GUSTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED INCLUDING 74 MPH AT FREMONT CANYON AND 66 MPH AT SAN BERNARDINO. OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WITH ABOUT -11 MB SAN-TPH AND -1 MB SAN-IPL. RIDGING ALOFT AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE CLEAR SKIES WITH WARMER DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE A LITTLE EACH DAY...WITH THE WARMEST DAY OCCURRING ON THANKSGIVING. MAX TEMPS ON THANKSGIVING WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO AVERAGE. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL MAINLY BE GRADIENT DRIVEN WITH WEAK UPPER AND THERMAL SUPPORT. ADVISORY STRENGTH WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE INLAND EMPIRE AND SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 35 MPH THROUGH THURSDAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED STRONGER GUSTS AT TIMES IN THE MOST WIND PRONE AREAS. THE WARM AND DRY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER HAZARD. && .LONG TERM (FRIDAY-MONDAY)...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE PAST TO THE N FRIDAY BRINGING COOLING AND HIGHER HUMIDITIES WITH A RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF RETURN OF MARINE LAYER CLOUDS AND VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER STRONGER TROUGH SHOULD MOVE PAST TO THE N AND E SUNDAY BRINGING POTENTIALLY STRONG AND COOL N TO NE WINDS. THE OFFSHORE WINDS WILL WEAKEN MONDAY. && .AVIATION... 241000Z...MAIN AVIATION WEATHER CONCERN IS TURBULENCE FROM STRONG NE TO E WINDS POURING THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES. REMOTE SURFACE STATIONS NEAR THESE GAPS ARE SHOWING SUSTAINED 25KT WITH GUSTS 35-55KT. TREND SINCE 24/0600 UTC HAS BEEN DOWNWARD AND ALL MODELS CONCUR WITH THIS...WITH SUSTAINED NE TO E WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15KT BELOW FL100 BY 1800 UTC. CEILING AND VISIBILITY WILL CONTINUE UNLIMITED FOR ANOTHER 48-60 HOURS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH THE LIGHTER NE TO E WINDS CONTINUING FLOW. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE-SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. PZ...NONE. &&
PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...SCV AVIATION/MARINE...BALFOUR
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