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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

 
 FXUS66 KLOX 121035
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
330 AM PDT SUN OCT 12 2008

.SHORT TERM...
WINDS ARE THE CONCERN FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. BOTH THE DAG AND BFL
GRADIENTS ARE OFFSHORE AND ARE TRENDING OFFSHORE. THE L.A. MTNS
(INCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE) ARE BLOWING THROUGH THE PASSES
AND CANYONS WHERE ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING. ACROSS THE INTERIOR VLYS THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF FROST
WHERE EVEN NOW MOST TEMPS ARE IN THE 33 TO 34 DEGREE RANGE.

OVERNIGHT OFFSHORE GRADS PEAK AT -6.8 TO DAG AND -3.7 TO BFL. THE
WRF FCSTS A WIND MAX OF 50 KT CENTERED OVER LAGUNA PEAK AT 950 MB
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST WITH ANOTHER MAX OF 45 KT CENTERED OVER
SANTA CLARITA VLY. THKNS INCREASES FROM 554 TO 556 OVERNIGHT AND
THEN SURGES TO 564DM DURING THE DAY. THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD
KEEP THE EVENT A STRONG ADVISORY RATHER THAN A WARNING. THERE SHOULD
STILL BE SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE INTERIOR OF SLO AND SBA COUNTIES
WHERE THE COOL AIR WILL REMAIN AND THERE WILL NOT BE ANY WINDS.

MONDAYS TEMPS WILL WARM NICELY WITH THE ADIABATIC COMPRESSION DRIVEN
BY THE NE WINDS. THE COASTS AND THE VLYS WILL BE QUITE WARM BUT
WITHOUT THE COMPRESSIONAL HEATING THE MTNS AND DESERTS WILL STILL BE
ON THE COOL SIDE. THE WINDS WILL DROP SOMEWHAT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
THE DIURNAL CYCLE BUT WILL INCREASE STEADILY THROUGH THE NIGHT.

MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE WARMER THAN TONIGHT AND THERE WILL BE NO FROST.
SOME LOW TEMPS IN THE WINDIER AREAS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S OR EVEN
LOWER 70S. WINDS WILL BE SIMILAR TO TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER 6DM OF
THKNS INCREASE FORECAST FROM 00Z TO 12Z. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND SFC
GRADIENT SUPPORT WILL MIRROR TONIGHT.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST. THERE WILL
STILL BE OFFSHORE FLOW BUT IT WILL BE MUCH WEAKER...MORE IN THE 15
TO 25 MPH RANGE. THE WEAKER SFC GRADS WILL ALLOW FOR A BETTER SEA
BREEZE AND CREATE LESS COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AS WELL BOTH OF WHICH
WILL LEAD TO COOL TEMPS ALONG THE COAST AND VLYS TEMPS INLAND TEMPS
WILL REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME.

.LONG TERM...
BOTH EC AND GFS AGREE THAT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE COOLING DAYS.
LOWER HGTS AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE COOLING TREND GOING
BUT WILL INHIBIT ANY MARINE LAYER.

A TROF BEGINS TO APPROACH THE COAST SATURDAY AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
A MARINE LAYER WILL FORM BUT RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THAT IS NEXT SUNDAY WHEN THE TROF IS FCST TO BE ATOP OF
CALIFORNIA. SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL JUST BE COOLER WITH THE
LOWERING OF THE HGTS.

&&

.AVIATION...

12/1100Z

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE. LLWS WILL BE A
CONCERN IN AND AROUND THE MOUNTAINS.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU TAF.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE CAVU TAF. LGT-MDT TURBULENCE FROM SFC TO 050
LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
FROST ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXSPSLOX).

&&




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