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HOME > Back to products page | Weather Glossary

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

 
 FXUS65 KFGZ 092214
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
315 PM MST TUE FEB 09 2010

.SYNOPSIS...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH INCREASING SHOWERS
THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MOST SHOWERS MAINLY NORTHWEST OF A LINE
FROM WINDOW ROCK TO WINSLOW TO PRESCOTT. A STRONGER DISTURBANCE
WILL PASSES EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH A GREATER
CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE IS
ANTICIPATED TO BRING WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND FAIR CONDITIONS
FROM LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ENOUGH MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY HAS ALLOWED FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY
NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM WINDOW ROCK TO WINSLOW TO PRESCOTT.
ANOTHER DIGGING TROUGH MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL
BRING LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC LIFT TO AREAS NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM
PAGE TO FLAGSTAFF TO PRESCOTT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THE SAME SYSTEM DIGGING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS
FORECAST TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA...NORTHERN MEXICO AND
EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE LATEST TRACK
ON THE GFS IS VERY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS RUNS. THE ECMWF TRACK IS A
LITTLE FARTHER TO THE NORTH THAN THE GFS...AND THE ETA12 IS FALLING
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. TIMING ON THIS SYSTEM HAS
SLOWED SOMEWHAT AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...NOT ENOUGH
SLOWING TO HAVE IMPACTS ON NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM LOOK TO BE ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BRADSHAW MOUNTAINS...EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM...AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS WITH MUCH LESS PRECIPITATION FURTHER NORTH. SNOW LEVELS
WILL DROP FROM THE 5000 TO 6000 FOOT RANGE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
TO AROUND THE 4500-5000 FT RANGE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...4 TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHERN BRADSHAW MOUNTAINS...NORTHERN GILA COUNTY
MOUNTAINS...PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN RIM SOUTHEAST OF HAPPY
JACK...AND THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. ELSEWHERE ABOVE 5500 FEET...A
DUSTING OF SNOW UP TO 3 INCHES... MAINLY FOR THE KAIBAB
PLATEAU...WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM...NORTHEAST PLATEAU...AND THE
COCONINO PLATEAU. BY THURSDAY MORNING THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
LINGERING SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS STILL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
RIM...NORTHERN GILA COUNTY...AND WHITE MOUNTAINS WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION LATE ON THURSDAY.

FOR THURSDAY AND HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...A LARGE-SCALE
PATTERN SHIFT APPEARS TO BE TAKING SHAPE WITH A LONGWAVE RIDGE
FORMING OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND THE MAIN JET STREAM HEADING TO
THE NORTH. THERE WILL STILL BE A THREAT OF A WEAK STORM OR TWO
DIVING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA...BUT CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE TRENDING
TOWARDS DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT ISOLD-SCT
-SHRA/-SHSN...SNOW LEVELS AROUND 4-5 KFT...WITH SCT MVFR AND LCL
LIFR CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF NORTHERN AZ FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SHOWERS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS FROM A KPRC-KFLG-KPGA LINE
NORTHWESTWARD THIS EVENING. THE AREA OF MOST NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL
SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT...THEN EASTWARD TO THE EASTERN MOGOLLON
AND WHITE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&




PUBLIC.............TC
AVIATION...........DJO

VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER
INFORMATION.










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