AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

 
 FXUS65 KFGZ 092214
 AFDFGZ
 
 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
 315 PM MST TUE FEB 09 2010
 
 .SYNOPSIS...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH INCREASING SHOWERS 
 THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MOST SHOWERS MAINLY NORTHWEST OF A LINE 
 FROM WINDOW ROCK TO WINSLOW TO PRESCOTT. A STRONGER DISTURBANCE 
 WILL PASSES EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH A GREATER 
 CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE IS 
 ANTICIPATED TO BRING WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND FAIR CONDITIONS 
 FROM LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
 
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 .DISCUSSION...ENOUGH MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY HAS ALLOWED FOR 
 SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY 
 NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM WINDOW ROCK TO WINSLOW TO PRESCOTT. 
 ANOTHER DIGGING TROUGH MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL 
 BRING LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC LIFT TO AREAS NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM 
 PAGE TO FLAGSTAFF TO PRESCOTT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. 
 
 THE SAME SYSTEM DIGGING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS 
 FORECAST TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA...NORTHERN MEXICO AND 
 EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE LATEST TRACK 
 ON THE GFS IS VERY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS RUNS. THE ECMWF TRACK IS A 
 LITTLE FARTHER TO THE NORTH THAN THE GFS...AND THE ETA12 IS FALLING 
 SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. TIMING ON THIS SYSTEM HAS 
 SLOWED SOMEWHAT AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...NOT ENOUGH 
 SLOWING TO HAVE IMPACTS ON NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR 
 SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM LOOK TO BE ALONG THE 
 SOUTHERN BRADSHAW MOUNTAINS...EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM...AND WHITE 
 MOUNTAINS WITH MUCH LESS PRECIPITATION FURTHER NORTH. SNOW LEVELS 
 WILL DROP FROM THE 5000 TO 6000 FOOT RANGE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING 
 TO AROUND THE 4500-5000 FT RANGE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. 
 SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...4 TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS 
 POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHERN BRADSHAW MOUNTAINS...NORTHERN GILA COUNTY 
 MOUNTAINS...PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN RIM SOUTHEAST OF HAPPY 
 JACK...AND THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. ELSEWHERE ABOVE 5500 FEET...A 
 DUSTING OF SNOW UP TO 3 INCHES... MAINLY FOR THE KAIBAB 
 PLATEAU...WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM...NORTHEAST PLATEAU...AND THE 
 COCONINO PLATEAU. BY THURSDAY MORNING THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF 
 LINGERING SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS STILL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN 
 RIM...NORTHERN GILA COUNTY...AND WHITE MOUNTAINS WITH IMPROVING 
 CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD 
 INTO THE REGION LATE ON THURSDAY.
 
 FOR THURSDAY AND HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...A LARGE-SCALE 
 PATTERN SHIFT APPEARS TO BE TAKING SHAPE WITH A LONGWAVE RIDGE  
 FORMING OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND THE MAIN JET STREAM HEADING TO 
 THE NORTH. THERE WILL STILL BE A THREAT OF A WEAK STORM OR TWO 
 DIVING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND ACROSS 
 PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA...BUT CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE TRENDING 
 TOWARDS DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST 
 PERIOD. 
 
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 .AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT ISOLD-SCT 
 -SHRA/-SHSN...SNOW LEVELS AROUND 4-5 KFT...WITH SCT MVFR AND LCL 
 LIFR CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF NORTHERN AZ FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
 SHOWERS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS FROM A KPRC-KFLG-KPGA LINE 
 NORTHWESTWARD THIS EVENING. THE AREA OF MOST NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL 
 SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT...THEN EASTWARD TO THE EASTERN MOGOLLON 
 AND WHITE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR 
 AMENDMENTS.
 
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 .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
 
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 PUBLIC.............TC
 AVIATION...........DJO
 
 VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER
 INFORMATION. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

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