AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

 
 FXUS64 KEPZ 241004
 AFDEPZ
 
 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
 304 AM MST TUE NOV 24 2009
 
 .SYNOPSIS...
 A COLD FRONT MOVED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS
 OVERNIGHT AND AS A RESULT IT WILL COOLER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
 OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SEASONABLY WARM DRY WEATHER
 TO THE BORDERLAND THROUGH SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH A
 COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE COLDER WEATHER ALONG WITH A FEW RAIN AND
 SNOW SHOWERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
 
 &&
 
 .DISCUSSION...
 A COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS
 OVERNIGHT WITH NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY ADVECTING
 COOLER CANADIAN AIR INTO THE REGION. THUS HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE
 AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER. SPLIT FLOW WILL ALSO EXIST ACROSS THE
 WEST THE NEXT 3 DAYS WITH UPPER RIDGE IN NORTHERLY BRANCH MOVING
 ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE ROCKIES. TO THE SOUTH A VERY BROAD 
 BUT WEAK UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS BAJA AND NORTHERN
 MEXICO. OVERALL EXPECT THE RIDGE DYNAMICS AND ASSOCIATED
 SUBSIDENCE TO PREVAIL WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH A SLOW
 WARMING TREND THROUGH THANKSGIVING. HOWEVER SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
 IN ADVANCE OF MEXICAN LOW WILL LIKELY TRANSPORT HIGH LEVEL
 MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA RESULTING
 IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
 
 MODELS FINALLY SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT ON SCENARIO FOR WEEKEND
 AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEEPENING/AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WILL
 DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY WITH AN INITIAL
 SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
 STRONGER WEST WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS
 AND ATTENDANT DRY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER STRONGER
 UPPER LOW WILL SUBSEQUENTLY MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA
 ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ECMWF SOMEWHAT STRONGER AND DEEPER WITH
 SYSTEM COMPARED WITH GFS AND CANADIAN BUT OVERALL EXPECT AT LEAST
 COOLER TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD
 FRONT PASSES. DESPITE LACK OF MOISTURE INFLOW IN ADVANCE OF SYSTEM
 WILL ALSO INTRODUCE MENTION OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOWS TO MUCH OF
 THE CWA AS STRONG PVA AND DYNAMIC LIFT ENHANCED BY 120 KT JET MAY
 INDUCE AT LEAST ISOLATED AREAS OF PRECIP.
 
 &&
 
 .AVIATION...
 VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL OCCUR THROUGH
 WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHEAST WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 MPH THIS
 MORNING RESULTING IN AREAS OF MODERATE TURBULENCE BELOW 5000 FEET
 AGL...ESPECIALLY ALONG WESTERN FACING SLOPES.
 
 &&
 
 .FIRE WEATHER...
 A COLD FRONT MOVED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WESTERN
 TEXAS OVERNIGHT AND AS A RESULT HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE
 AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL ALSO GUST
 NEAR 25 MPH THIS MORNING BEFORE DECREASING THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
 PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
 WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY CAUSING CONTINUED DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY
 LIGHT WINDS WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
 GRADUALLY INCREASE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
 APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THUS EXPECT
 THE FIRE DANGER TO REMAIN MOSTLY HIGH THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO THE
 CONTINUED LACK OF PRECIPITATION. A FEW RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
 SHOWERS ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR SUNDAY AS THE
 LOW AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
 
 &&
 
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
 EL PASO                 60  33  63  36  64 /   0   0   0   0   0 
 SIERRA BLANCA TX        58  27  60  31  60 /   0   0   0   0   0 
 LAS CRUCES              59  30  63  33  63 /   0   0   0   0   0 
 ALAMOGORDO              57  28  60  32  61 /   0   0   0   0   0 
 CLOUDCROFT              45  15  48  18  48 /   0   0   0   0   0 
 TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   57  27  60  29  61 /   0   0   0   0   0 
 SILVER CITY             55  23  58  27  59 /   0   0   0   0   0 
 DEMING                  59  29  62  32  64 /   0   0   0   0   0 
 LORDSBURG               60  29  63  31  65 /   0   0   0   0   0 
 
 &&
 
 .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 NM...NONE.
 TX...NONE.
 &&
 
 

 
 05 ROGASH
 
 

Webmaster
US Dept of Commerce
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
National Weather Service
Tucson Weather Forecast Office
520 North Park Ave, Suite 304
Tucson, AZ 85719

Tel: (520) 670-6526