AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

 
 FXUS64 KEPZ 151857
 AFDEPZ
 
 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
 1257 PM MDT WED OCT 15 2008
 
 .SYNOPSIS...
 HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES FOR THE
 REMAINDER OF THE WEEK GIVING THE REGION SEASONABLY WARM DRY
 WEATHER. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND
 TUESDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM TRANSPORT
 MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION.
 
 &&
 
 .DISCUSSION...
 NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS OUTLOOK AS LATEST MODEL
 OUTPUT AND DATA CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS. WEAK ZONAL FLOW
 ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
 THURSDAY WHILE AMPLIFYING RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS
 FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS PATTERN SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER WITH A
 SUBSIDENCE AND SUNSHINE INDUCED WARMING TREND. FORECASTED
 SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW STRONG MID LEVEL INVERSION OR STABLE LAYER
 WILL PERSIST NEXT SEVERAL DAYS SO RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ABOUT
 NIL.
 
 WEAK UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY INTO SOUTHERN
 CALIFORNIA/BAJA LATER SUNDAY AND PROGRESS SLOWLY THROUGH ARIZONA
 ON MONDAY. BACKING/INCREASING SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT AHEAD OF
 SYSTEM WILL TRANSPORT INCREASING MOISTURE WHILE APPROACH OF THE
 TROUGH SHOULD ALSO BRING COOLING ALOFT. THUS WILL MENTION
 CONVECTION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. 
 
 &&
 
 .AVIATION...VALID 16/0000Z-17/0000Z
 VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEE APPROPRIATE TAFS FOR MORE 
 DETAILS.
 
 &&
  
 .FIRE WEATHER...
 FAIR WEATHER IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK AS ZONAL FLOW GIVES WAY 
 INTO A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TOWARD THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL STAY 
 OUT OF THE EAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE 
 SOUTH. THIS WIND SHIFT WILL TAP INTO SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE EARLY 
 NEXT WEEK WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE 
 REGION AT APPROXIMATELY THE SAME TIME. THIS WILL RETURN A CHANCE OF 
 PRECIPITATION TO THE BORDERLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
 
 &&
 
 
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
 EL PASO                 50  76  54  81  56 /   0   0   0   0   0 
 SIERRA BLANCA TX        49  68  48  75  52 /   0   0   0   0   0 
 LAS CRUCES              47  74  51  81  53 /   0   0   0   0   0 
 ALAMOGORDO              45  72  49  78  50 /   0   0   0   0   0 
 CLOUDCROFT              25  49  35  61  30 /   0   0   0   0   0 
 TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   45  73  49  80  50 /   0   0   0   0   0 
 SILVER CITY             40  70  43  74  43 /   0   0   0   0   0 
 DEMING                  47  74  50  81  51 /   0   0   0   0   0 
 LORDSBURG               47  80  49  81  52 /   0   0   0   0   0 
 
 &&
 
 .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 NM...NONE.
 TX...NONE.
 &&
 
 

 
 05 ROGASH/ 23 ADAIR
 
 

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