National Weather Service Tucson Arizona
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
FXUS64 KEPZ 151857 AFDEPZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM 1257 PM MDT WED OCT 15 2008 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK GIVING THE REGION SEASONABLY WARM DRY WEATHER. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM TRANSPORT MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION. && .DISCUSSION... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS OUTLOOK AS LATEST MODEL OUTPUT AND DATA CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS. WEAK ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE AMPLIFYING RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS PATTERN SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER WITH A SUBSIDENCE AND SUNSHINE INDUCED WARMING TREND. FORECASTED SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW STRONG MID LEVEL INVERSION OR STABLE LAYER WILL PERSIST NEXT SEVERAL DAYS SO RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ABOUT NIL. WEAK UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/BAJA LATER SUNDAY AND PROGRESS SLOWLY THROUGH ARIZONA ON MONDAY. BACKING/INCREASING SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT AHEAD OF SYSTEM WILL TRANSPORT INCREASING MOISTURE WHILE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH SHOULD ALSO BRING COOLING ALOFT. THUS WILL MENTION CONVECTION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...VALID 16/0000Z-17/0000Z VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEE APPROPRIATE TAFS FOR MORE DETAILS. && .FIRE WEATHER... FAIR WEATHER IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK AS ZONAL FLOW GIVES WAY INTO A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TOWARD THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE EAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH. THIS WIND SHIFT WILL TAP INTO SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AT APPROXIMATELY THE SAME TIME. THIS WILL RETURN A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE BORDERLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... EL PASO 50 76 54 81 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 SIERRA BLANCA TX 49 68 48 75 52 / 0 0 0 0 0 LAS CRUCES 47 74 51 81 53 / 0 0 0 0 0 ALAMOGORDO 45 72 49 78 50 / 0 0 0 0 0 CLOUDCROFT 25 49 35 61 30 / 0 0 0 0 0 TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 45 73 49 80 50 / 0 0 0 0 0 SILVER CITY 40 70 43 74 43 / 0 0 0 0 0 DEMING 47 74 50 81 51 / 0 0 0 0 0 LORDSBURG 47 80 49 81 52 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...NONE. TX...NONE. &&
05 ROGASH/ 23 ADAIR
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