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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

 
 FXUS65 KABQ 102110 CCA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
305 PM MDT FRI OCT 10 2008

.DISCUSSION...
BIG CHANGES UNDERWAY FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. LATEST WATER
VAPOR LOOP SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE EARLY FALL TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE
GREAT BASIN...HURRICANE NORBERT CHURNING NE TOWARD THE BAJA...AND
DRY AIR IN BETWEEN OVER AZ/NM. A 996MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
OVER SE UTAH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN...ALLOWING SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
TO PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD OUT OF OLD MEXICO. FOR TONIGHT...MODELS
INDICATE VERY EFFICIENT TOP DOWN MOISTENING AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE AREA WHILE SURFACE DEWPOINTS CREEP UP
INTO THE 40S AND 50S. ISOLD SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP
FIRST OVER THE GILA REGION THEN SPREAD QUICKLY NORTHEAST ON FAST
SSW FLOW.

MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN EVOLUTION
THROUGH ABOUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ENSEMBLE GEFS/SREF MEMBERS INDICATE
THE 500MB TROUGH WILL DEEPEN TO AN INTENSE 543DM LOW OVER THE GREAT
BASIN SATURDAY. THIS IS 4 STD DEVS BELOW CLIMO. MEANWHILE...PWATS
WILL AVERAGE 0.75-1.00 ACROSS AT LEAST CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM WHICH
IS 2.5-3.0 STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL. SIGNIFICANT DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEM WILL FIRST CREATE...STRONG WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE SATURDAY. WILL LEAVE HIGH WIND WATCH INTACT
OVER THE WEST WITH EXPECTATION THAT IT WILL BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING
LATER TONIGHT. 700MB WINDS WILL APPROACH 60 KNOTS ACROSS THE WEST
AND METMOS GUIDANCE SUPPORTS SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 40 MPH WITH GUSTS
UP TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE. WILL ALLOW SPREAD A WIND ADVISORY EAST INTO
THE CENTRAL VALLEY AND NE PLAINS FOR SATURDAY.

SECONDLY...TWO AREAS OF INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION.
THE FIRST OVER THE E PLAINS WHERE SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. STRONG CONDITIONAL SYMMETRIC
INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE BY SAT
EVENING IN ASSCN WITH STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. THIS WILL
SPREAD EAST INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
RAISED POPS TO DEFINITE ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND NORTHWEST
MTNS SATURDAY EVENING WITH LIKELY POPS ELSEWHERE. HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE SW FACING SLOPES OF THE GILA REGION AND ALONG THE
CENTRAL MTN CHAIN HOWEVER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE.

PRECIP WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY SUNDAY FOR AT LEAST THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DIFFERENCES ON HOW FAR
WEST THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. RAISED POPS
TO HIGH CHANCE IN LINE WITH MAV/METMOS NUMBERS AND WENT BELOW GUIDANCE
ON TEMPS THROUGH MONDAY. STRONG DIFFERENCES EMERGE MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
THEREFORE LEFT EXTENDED GRIDS UNCHANGED TO AWAIT BETTER MODEL CONSISTENCY.

GUYER

&&

.AVIATION...
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION
AND LOWERING CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT. ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. IN THE MEANTIME...GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN WEATHER FACTOR TO AVIATION. THE WESTERN THIRD AND NORTHEAST
HALF WILL BE FAVORED THE REST OF TODAY WITH SUSTAINED READINGS BETWEEN
22 TO 30 KT AND GUSTS IN THE 32 TO 40 KT RANGE. STRONGER WINDS ANTICIPATED
ON SATURDAY WITH DEVELOPING WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS. SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL WILL ALSO EXIST ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD.

NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 09Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY ABATE EARLY TO MID EVENING ALTHOUGH THE
HIGHEST RIDGES WILL REMAIN RATHER GUSTY. AREAS TO THE LEE OF THE
SIGNIFICANT MOUNTAIN RANGES...ESPECIALLY RANGES THAT LIE MORE WEST
TO EAST...WILL ALSO SEE MOUNTAIN WAVE DEVELOPMENT AND PERIODIC
STRONG GUSTS TONIGHT. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO
OCCUR FOR 1 TO 2 HOURS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS
THANKS TO MARGINALLY LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.

VERY UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND AS A VIGOROUS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE
NORBERT WILL BE TRANSPORTED ACROSS NEW MEXICO AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH.
LOOK FOR INCREASING PRECIPITATION STARTING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MTS
LATER TONIGHT AND SPREADING NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. IT IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE WETTER CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL SO PLAN ON AT LEAST A FEW HOURS OF WETTING RAIN ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL ALSO
BE A BIG STORY ON SATURDAY WITH STRONGEST READINGS EXPECTED ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST AREAS AS WELL AS ALONG AND JUST TO THE
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. BOTTOM LINE...WINDS WILL BE VERY WINDY
ON SATURDAY AREAWIDE AND EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO LESSEN ON SUNDAY WITH SOME RESIDUAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
EAST.

THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS
OF NOW...RESIDUAL PRECIPITATION COULD REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN AND
PERHAPS SOUTHERN AREAS WHILE VERY DRY AIR IN THE FORM OF LOW
DEWPOINTS SETTLES IN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF. CLOUD COVER WILL BE
THE WILD CARD AS FAR AS A WIDESPREAD FREEZING EVENT ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HALF BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 52 67 42 55 / 10 40 40 10
GALLUP.......................... 48 64 32 53 / 10 50 40 10
GRANTS.......................... 45 66 37 57 / 20 50 80 20
GLENWOOD........................ 50 69 47 66 / 30 80 60 20
CHAMA........................... 38 55 33 48 / 30 70 90 20
LOS ALAMOS...................... 43 58 41 56 / 20 60 70 30
RED RIVER....................... 36 55 35 49 / 20 60 80 40
TAOS............................ 43 62 43 55 / 20 60 70 40
SANTA FE........................ 45 62 42 58 / 20 60 70 40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 47 65 45 60 / 10 50 70 40
ESPANOLA........................ 43 67 45 63 / 10 50 60 30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 54 70 50 63 / 10 40 60 30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 50 71 48 65 / 10 40 60 30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 51 68 45 60 / 10 50 70 30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 52 69 46 65 / 10 40 70 30
SOCORRO......................... 51 71 50 70 / 20 50 50 30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 42 59 39 58 / 20 60 60 40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 46 63 44 59 / 10 50 60 30
CARRIZOZO....................... 50 66 50 68 / 20 60 40 30
RUIDOSO......................... 46 63 47 62 / 20 70 40 30
RATON........................... 48 67 46 65 / 5 50 70 30
LAS VEGAS....................... 49 62 45 61 / 10 50 70 40
ROY............................. 50 68 49 66 / 10 50 70 30
CLAYTON......................... 52 72 54 69 / 5 60 70 30
SANTA ROSA...................... 54 69 52 70 / 10 50 60 30
TUCUMCARI....................... 58 75 60 72 / 10 70 60 30
FORT SUMNER..................... 55 73 56 72 / 10 60 60 30
CLOVIS.......................... 55 72 56 72 / 10 70 60 30
PORTALES........................ 57 74 59 73 / 10 70 60 30
ROSWELL......................... 57 80 59 75 / 10 60 40 20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ002>007-009>012-015>017-026.

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ001-008-014.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ004>008-014.

&&




GUYER/50

CORRECTED HAZARDS SECTION





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