AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

 
 FXUS65 KABQ 241013
 AFDABQ
 
 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
 313 AM MST TUE NOV 24 2009
 
 .DISCUSSION...
 ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE THROUGH SATURDAY. 
 THE EXTENDED POPS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE AS
 A WINTER STORM SYSTEM LOOKS MORE POSSIBLE OVER THE SW CONUS. THE
 LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE UPPER WAVE FROM MONDAY SLIDING
 EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES WITH ANOTHER UPPER WAVE OVER
 THE NORTHERN ROCKIES PUSHING SOUTH TOWARD THE FRONT RANGE. AN
 IMPRESSIVE LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW IS CHURNING SLOWLY EAST OVER THE
 GULF OF ALASKA. AT THE SURFACE...A 1036MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS
 SITUATED OVER CENTRAL COLORADO. DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION ARE
 HOVERING BTWN 0 AND 10F IN MANY LOCALES. CLEAR SKIES...FAIRLY
 LIGHT WINDS...AND DRY AIR ARE MAKING FOR A COLD NIGHT AREAWIDE.
 
 TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL FEATURE A NEAR PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR
 MOST OF THE AREA. A SUBTLE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE INTO THE
 NE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MOVES
 OFF INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ALLOWING FOR SOME WEAK PRESSURE RISES OVER
 THE FRONT RANGE. ELSEWHERE...CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS...AND VERY DRY
 AIR WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG NOCTURNAL INVERSIONS WITH SOME VERY COLD
 TEMPS IN VALLEY LOCALES...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS.
 MAX TEMPS WILL BE WARMER IN MID SLOPE AREAS THAN VALLEYS DUE TO
 WEAK MIXING BENEATH A SURFACE TO 500MB RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE STATE.
 
 00Z MODELS INCLUDING ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO PROVIDE REMARKABLY
 GOOD AGREEMENT FOR DAY 5 ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WINTER STORM OVER
 THE SW CONUS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. 00Z GEM/ECMWF/DGEX HAVE BEEN 
 THE MOST CONSISTENT AND BULLISH WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR THE END OF THE 
 HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WHILE THE LATEST GFS CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH 
 STRENGTH AND TIMING HOWEVER IT IS BEGINNING TO LINE UP. RAISED POPS 
 TO CHANCE ALONG THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN/EAST SLOPES FOR LATE SATURDAY
 INTO LATE SUNDAY. IT IS STILL VERY EARLY TO BEGIN NAILING DOWN ANY
 DETAILS AS MODELS CAN ALWAYS CHANGE THEIR TUNE. IT DOES APPEAR TEMPS 
 WILL BE VERY COLD WITH THIS SYSTEM THEREFORE SNOW RATIOS WILL BE 
 HIGH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS 
 FOR THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST 
 FORECASTS. GUYER
 
 &&
 
 .AVIATION...
 LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT TO CONTINUE TO RELAX TODAY WITH
 SURFACE HIGH REMAINING CENTERED OVER COLORADO...HOWEVER NORTHWEST
 TO NORTH WINDS AT MOUNTAIN TOP LEVELS MAY GUST TO AROUND 30 KT AT
 TIMES BEFORE 22Z ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
 MOUNTAINS AND OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. OTHERWISE VFR.
 
 NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 22Z.
 
 &&
 
 .FIRE WEATHER...
 HIGH PRESSURE AT BOTH THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A VERY
 DRY AIR MASS AND POOR VENTILATION TODAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.
 MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER OVERALL TODAY...AND
 TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS MAY MAKE FOR SOME TOPSY TURVY READINGS WITH
 SOME HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WARMER THAN
 VALLEY LOCALES. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY COOL TEMPERATURES A
 FEW DEGREES IN NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY.
 
 ON FRIDAY...SURFACE LEE TROUGH TO DEVELOP AS WINDS ALOFT BECOME 
 WESTERLY AND START TO INCREASE. WINDIER BUT CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS 
 EXPECTED SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM STARTS TO DEVELOP 
 OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN. WHILE FORECAST MODELS 
 DIFFER ON HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE...CONSIDERABLY COLDER AIR 
 DOES LOOK TO SPREAD OVER NEW MEXICO BY SUNDAY. THERE IS SOME 
 CONSENSUS IN THE MODELS THIS STORM COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL 
 TO THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO BY NEXT MONDAY. 
 
 &&
 
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
 FARMINGTON......................  46  14  47  15 /   0   0   0   0 
 DULCE...........................  47   7  52  13 /   0   0   0   0 
 CUBA............................  48   8  52  14 /   0   0   0   0 
 GALLUP..........................  49   2  50   6 /   0   0   0   0 
 EL MORRO........................  49  10  51  12 /   0   0   0   0 
 GRANTS..........................  50   5  53   9 /   0   0   0   0 
 QUEMADO.........................  50  12  55  14 /   0   0   0   0 
 GLENWOOD........................  60  23  62  24 /   0   0   0   0 
 CHAMA...........................  46  10  50  13 /   0   0   0   0 
 LOS ALAMOS......................  46  20  50  22 /   0   0   0   0 
 PECOS...........................  50  18  51  20 /   0   0   0   0 
 CERRO/QUESTA....................  45   8  50   9 /   0   0   0   0 
 RED RIVER.......................  40   3  42  13 /   0   0   0   0 
 ANGEL FIRE......................  43   0  47   0 /   0   0   0   0 
 TAOS............................  46   5  50   6 /   0   0   0   0 
 ESPANOLA........................  50  11  50  13 /   0   0   0   0 
 SANTA FE........................  48  17  51  22 /   0   0   0   0 
 SANTA FE AIRPORT................  49  15  51  21 /   0   0   0   0 
 ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  51  28  53  30 /   0   0   0   0 
 ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  51  25  52  28 /   0   0   0   0 
 ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  51  18  50  18 /   0   0   0   0 
 ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  51  22  52  23 /   0   0   0   0 
 LOS LUNAS.......................  55  12  52  13 /   0   0   0   0 
 RIO RANCHO......................  51  21  52  23 /   0   0   0   0 
 SOCORRO.........................  55  20  55  18 /   0   0   0   0 
 SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  47  20  50  20 /   0   0   0   0 
 MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  50  13  52  17 /   0   0   0   0 
 CLINES CORNERS..................  49  21  53  23 /   0   0   0   0 
 GRAN QUIVIRA....................  52  23  55  23 /   0   0   0   0 
 CARRIZOZO.......................  56  25  57  24 /   0   0   0   0 
 RUIDOSO.........................  51  23  54  29 /   0   0   0   0 
 CAPULIN.........................  47  14  46  17 /   0   0   0   0 
 RATON...........................  50  14  51  15 /   0   0   0   0 
 LAS VEGAS.......................  51  20  55  19 /   0   0   0   0 
 CLAYTON.........................  53  26  51  30 /   0   0   0   0 
 ROY.............................  51  18  51  26 /   0   0   0   0 
 CONCHAS.........................  55  22  58  24 /   0   0   0   0 
 SANTA ROSA......................  56  22  58  24 /   0   0   0   0 
 TUCUMCARI.......................  56  21  57  25 /   0   0   0   0 
 CLOVIS..........................  56  26  58  26 /   0   0   0   0 
 PORTALES........................  56  23  59  24 /   0   0   0   0 
 FORT SUMNER.....................  57  23  61  23 /   0   0   0   0 
 ROSWELL.........................  58  22  63  24 /   0   0   0   0 
 PICACHO.........................  58  24  65  25 /   0   0   0   0 
 ELK.............................  56  27  61  23 /   0   0   0   0 
 
 &&
 
 .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 NONE.
 
 &&
 
 

 
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