AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

 
 FXUS65 KABQ 102110 CCA
 AFDABQ
 
 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
 305 PM MDT FRI OCT 10 2008
 
 .DISCUSSION...
 BIG CHANGES UNDERWAY FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. LATEST WATER 
 VAPOR LOOP SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE EARLY FALL TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE 
 GREAT BASIN...HURRICANE NORBERT CHURNING NE TOWARD THE BAJA...AND
 DRY AIR IN BETWEEN OVER AZ/NM. A 996MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER 
 OVER SE UTAH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN...ALLOWING SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW 
 TO PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD OUT OF OLD MEXICO. FOR TONIGHT...MODELS 
 INDICATE VERY EFFICIENT TOP DOWN MOISTENING AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL
 MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE AREA WHILE SURFACE DEWPOINTS CREEP UP
 INTO THE 40S AND 50S. ISOLD SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP
 FIRST OVER THE GILA REGION THEN SPREAD QUICKLY NORTHEAST ON FAST
 SSW FLOW.
 
 MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN EVOLUTION
 THROUGH ABOUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ENSEMBLE GEFS/SREF MEMBERS INDICATE
 THE 500MB TROUGH WILL DEEPEN TO AN INTENSE 543DM LOW OVER THE GREAT 
 BASIN SATURDAY. THIS IS 4 STD DEVS BELOW CLIMO. MEANWHILE...PWATS 
 WILL AVERAGE 0.75-1.00 ACROSS AT LEAST CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM WHICH 
 IS 2.5-3.0 STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL. SIGNIFICANT DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED 
 WITH THE SYSTEM WILL FIRST CREATE...STRONG WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE 
 WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE SATURDAY. WILL LEAVE HIGH WIND WATCH INTACT
 OVER THE WEST WITH EXPECTATION THAT IT WILL BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING
 LATER TONIGHT. 700MB WINDS WILL APPROACH 60 KNOTS ACROSS THE WEST
 AND METMOS GUIDANCE SUPPORTS SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 40 MPH WITH GUSTS
 UP TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE. WILL ALLOW SPREAD A WIND ADVISORY EAST INTO
 THE CENTRAL VALLEY AND NE PLAINS FOR SATURDAY.
 
 SECONDLY...TWO AREAS OF INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION. 
 THE FIRST OVER THE E PLAINS WHERE SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 
 LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. STRONG CONDITIONAL SYMMETRIC
 INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE BY SAT 
 EVENING IN ASSCN WITH STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. THIS WILL 
 SPREAD EAST INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. 
 RAISED POPS TO DEFINITE ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND NORTHWEST 
 MTNS SATURDAY EVENING WITH LIKELY POPS ELSEWHERE. HEAVY RAINFALL IS
 POSSIBLE OVER THE SW FACING SLOPES OF THE GILA REGION AND ALONG THE
 CENTRAL MTN CHAIN HOWEVER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW FLASH
 FLOOD GUIDANCE.
 
 PRECIP WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY SUNDAY FOR AT LEAST THE EASTERN HALF 
 OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DIFFERENCES ON HOW FAR 
 WEST THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. RAISED POPS
 TO HIGH CHANCE IN LINE WITH MAV/METMOS NUMBERS AND WENT BELOW GUIDANCE
 ON TEMPS THROUGH MONDAY. STRONG DIFFERENCES EMERGE MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
 THEREFORE LEFT EXTENDED GRIDS UNCHANGED TO AWAIT BETTER MODEL CONSISTENCY.
 
 GUYER
 
 &&
 
 .AVIATION...
 WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION
 AND LOWERING CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT. ESPECIALLY
 ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. IN THE MEANTIME...GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
 THE MAIN WEATHER FACTOR TO AVIATION. THE WESTERN THIRD AND NORTHEAST
 HALF WILL BE FAVORED THE REST OF TODAY WITH SUSTAINED READINGS BETWEEN
 22 TO 30 KT AND GUSTS IN THE 32 TO 40 KT RANGE. STRONGER WINDS ANTICIPATED
 ON SATURDAY WITH DEVELOPING WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS. SEVERE STORM
 POTENTIAL WILL ALSO EXIST ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD.
 
 NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 09Z.
 
 &&
 
 .FIRE WEATHER...
 GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY ABATE EARLY TO MID EVENING ALTHOUGH THE 
 HIGHEST RIDGES WILL REMAIN RATHER GUSTY. AREAS TO THE LEE OF THE 
 SIGNIFICANT MOUNTAIN RANGES...ESPECIALLY RANGES THAT LIE MORE WEST 
 TO EAST...WILL ALSO SEE MOUNTAIN WAVE DEVELOPMENT AND PERIODIC 
 STRONG GUSTS TONIGHT. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO 
 OCCUR FOR 1 TO 2 HOURS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS
 THANKS TO MARGINALLY LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
 
 VERY UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND AS A VIGOROUS UPPER 
 LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE 
 NORBERT WILL BE TRANSPORTED ACROSS NEW MEXICO AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. 
 LOOK FOR INCREASING PRECIPITATION STARTING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MTS 
 LATER TONIGHT AND SPREADING NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD SATURDAY INTO 
 SATURDAY NIGHT. IT IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE WETTER CONDITIONS 
 WILL PREVAIL SO PLAN ON AT LEAST A FEW HOURS OF WETTING RAIN ACROSS 
 CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL ALSO 
 BE A BIG STORY ON SATURDAY WITH STRONGEST READINGS EXPECTED ACROSS 
 WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST AREAS AS WELL AS ALONG AND JUST TO THE 
 EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. BOTTOM LINE...WINDS WILL BE VERY WINDY 
 ON SATURDAY AREAWIDE AND EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER. WINDS ARE EXPECTED 
 TO LESSEN ON SUNDAY WITH SOME RESIDUAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE 
 EAST. 
 
 THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS 
 OF NOW...RESIDUAL PRECIPITATION COULD REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN AND 
 PERHAPS SOUTHERN AREAS WHILE VERY DRY AIR IN THE FORM OF LOW 
 DEWPOINTS SETTLES IN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF. CLOUD COVER WILL BE 
 THE WILD CARD AS FAR AS A WIDESPREAD FREEZING EVENT ACROSS THE 
 NORTHWEST HALF BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS. 
 
 &&
 
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
 FARMINGTON......................  52  67  42  55 /  10  40  40  10 
 GALLUP..........................  48  64  32  53 /  10  50  40  10 
 GRANTS..........................  45  66  37  57 /  20  50  80  20 
 GLENWOOD........................  50  69  47  66 /  30  80  60  20 
 CHAMA...........................  38  55  33  48 /  30  70  90  20 
 LOS ALAMOS......................  43  58  41  56 /  20  60  70  30 
 RED RIVER.......................  36  55  35  49 /  20  60  80  40 
 TAOS............................  43  62  43  55 /  20  60  70  40 
 SANTA FE........................  45  62  42  58 /  20  60  70  40 
 SANTA FE AIRPORT................  47  65  45  60 /  10  50  70  40 
 ESPANOLA........................  43  67  45  63 /  10  50  60  30 
 ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  54  70  50  63 /  10  40  60  30 
 ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  50  71  48  65 /  10  40  60  30 
 ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  51  68  45  60 /  10  50  70  30 
 ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  52  69  46  65 /  10  40  70  30 
 SOCORRO.........................  51  71  50  70 /  20  50  50  30 
 SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  42  59  39  58 /  20  60  60  40 
 MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  46  63  44  59 /  10  50  60  30 
 CARRIZOZO.......................  50  66  50  68 /  20  60  40  30 
 RUIDOSO.........................  46  63  47  62 /  20  70  40  30 
 RATON...........................  48  67  46  65 /   5  50  70  30 
 LAS VEGAS.......................  49  62  45  61 /  10  50  70  40 
 ROY.............................  50  68  49  66 /  10  50  70  30 
 CLAYTON.........................  52  72  54  69 /   5  60  70  30 
 SANTA ROSA......................  54  69  52  70 /  10  50  60  30 
 TUCUMCARI.......................  58  75  60  72 /  10  70  60  30 
 FORT SUMNER.....................  55  73  56  72 /  10  60  60  30 
 CLOVIS..........................  55  72  56  72 /  10  70  60  30 
 PORTALES........................  57  74  59  73 /  10  70  60  30 
 ROSWELL.........................  57  80  59  75 /  10  60  40  20 
 
 &&
 
 .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING 
 ZONES...NMZ002>007-009>012-015>017-026.
 
 HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR 
 THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ001-008-014.
 
 WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING 
 ZONES...NMZ004>008-014.
 
 &&
 
 

 
 GUYER/50
 
 CORRECTED HAZARDS SECTION
 
 
 
 

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