National Weather Service Tucson Arizona
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
FXUS65 KABQ 241013 AFDABQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 313 AM MST TUE NOV 24 2009 .DISCUSSION... ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE THROUGH SATURDAY. THE EXTENDED POPS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE AS A WINTER STORM SYSTEM LOOKS MORE POSSIBLE OVER THE SW CONUS. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE UPPER WAVE FROM MONDAY SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES WITH ANOTHER UPPER WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES PUSHING SOUTH TOWARD THE FRONT RANGE. AN IMPRESSIVE LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW IS CHURNING SLOWLY EAST OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. AT THE SURFACE...A 1036MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS SITUATED OVER CENTRAL COLORADO. DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION ARE HOVERING BTWN 0 AND 10F IN MANY LOCALES. CLEAR SKIES...FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS...AND DRY AIR ARE MAKING FOR A COLD NIGHT AREAWIDE. TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL FEATURE A NEAR PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA. A SUBTLE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE INTO THE NE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MOVES OFF INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ALLOWING FOR SOME WEAK PRESSURE RISES OVER THE FRONT RANGE. ELSEWHERE...CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS...AND VERY DRY AIR WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG NOCTURNAL INVERSIONS WITH SOME VERY COLD TEMPS IN VALLEY LOCALES...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE WARMER IN MID SLOPE AREAS THAN VALLEYS DUE TO WEAK MIXING BENEATH A SURFACE TO 500MB RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE STATE. 00Z MODELS INCLUDING ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO PROVIDE REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR DAY 5 ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WINTER STORM OVER THE SW CONUS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. 00Z GEM/ECMWF/DGEX HAVE BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT AND BULLISH WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WHILE THE LATEST GFS CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH STRENGTH AND TIMING HOWEVER IT IS BEGINNING TO LINE UP. RAISED POPS TO CHANCE ALONG THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN/EAST SLOPES FOR LATE SATURDAY INTO LATE SUNDAY. IT IS STILL VERY EARLY TO BEGIN NAILING DOWN ANY DETAILS AS MODELS CAN ALWAYS CHANGE THEIR TUNE. IT DOES APPEAR TEMPS WILL BE VERY COLD WITH THIS SYSTEM THEREFORE SNOW RATIOS WILL BE HIGH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS FOR THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. GUYER && .AVIATION... LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT TO CONTINUE TO RELAX TODAY WITH SURFACE HIGH REMAINING CENTERED OVER COLORADO...HOWEVER NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS AT MOUNTAIN TOP LEVELS MAY GUST TO AROUND 30 KT AT TIMES BEFORE 22Z ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. OTHERWISE VFR. NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 22Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... HIGH PRESSURE AT BOTH THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A VERY DRY AIR MASS AND POOR VENTILATION TODAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER OVERALL TODAY...AND TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS MAY MAKE FOR SOME TOPSY TURVY READINGS WITH SOME HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WARMER THAN VALLEY LOCALES. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY COOL TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES IN NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY. ON FRIDAY...SURFACE LEE TROUGH TO DEVELOP AS WINDS ALOFT BECOME WESTERLY AND START TO INCREASE. WINDIER BUT CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM STARTS TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN. WHILE FORECAST MODELS DIFFER ON HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE...CONSIDERABLY COLDER AIR DOES LOOK TO SPREAD OVER NEW MEXICO BY SUNDAY. THERE IS SOME CONSENSUS IN THE MODELS THIS STORM COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO BY NEXT MONDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FARMINGTON...................... 46 14 47 15 / 0 0 0 0 DULCE........................... 47 7 52 13 / 0 0 0 0 CUBA............................ 48 8 52 14 / 0 0 0 0 GALLUP.......................... 49 2 50 6 / 0 0 0 0 EL MORRO........................ 49 10 51 12 / 0 0 0 0 GRANTS.......................... 50 5 53 9 / 0 0 0 0 QUEMADO......................... 50 12 55 14 / 0 0 0 0 GLENWOOD........................ 60 23 62 24 / 0 0 0 0 CHAMA........................... 46 10 50 13 / 0 0 0 0 LOS ALAMOS...................... 46 20 50 22 / 0 0 0 0 PECOS........................... 50 18 51 20 / 0 0 0 0 CERRO/QUESTA.................... 45 8 50 9 / 0 0 0 0 RED RIVER....................... 40 3 42 13 / 0 0 0 0 ANGEL FIRE...................... 43 0 47 0 / 0 0 0 0 TAOS............................ 46 5 50 6 / 0 0 0 0 ESPANOLA........................ 50 11 50 13 / 0 0 0 0 SANTA FE........................ 48 17 51 22 / 0 0 0 0 SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 49 15 51 21 / 0 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 51 28 53 30 / 0 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 51 25 52 28 / 0 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 51 18 50 18 / 0 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 51 22 52 23 / 0 0 0 0 LOS LUNAS....................... 55 12 52 13 / 0 0 0 0 RIO RANCHO...................... 51 21 52 23 / 0 0 0 0 SOCORRO......................... 55 20 55 18 / 0 0 0 0 SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 47 20 50 20 / 0 0 0 0 MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 50 13 52 17 / 0 0 0 0 CLINES CORNERS.................. 49 21 53 23 / 0 0 0 0 GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 52 23 55 23 / 0 0 0 0 CARRIZOZO....................... 56 25 57 24 / 0 0 0 0 RUIDOSO......................... 51 23 54 29 / 0 0 0 0 CAPULIN......................... 47 14 46 17 / 0 0 0 0 RATON........................... 50 14 51 15 / 0 0 0 0 LAS VEGAS....................... 51 20 55 19 / 0 0 0 0 CLAYTON......................... 53 26 51 30 / 0 0 0 0 ROY............................. 51 18 51 26 / 0 0 0 0 CONCHAS......................... 55 22 58 24 / 0 0 0 0 SANTA ROSA...................... 56 22 58 24 / 0 0 0 0 TUCUMCARI....................... 56 21 57 25 / 0 0 0 0 CLOVIS.......................... 56 26 58 26 / 0 0 0 0 PORTALES........................ 56 23 59 24 / 0 0 0 0 FORT SUMNER..................... 57 23 61 23 / 0 0 0 0 ROSWELL......................... 58 22 63 24 / 0 0 0 0 PICACHO......................... 58 24 65 25 / 0 0 0 0 ELK............................. 56 27 61 23 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. &&
GUYER
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