QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST

 
 FXUS04 KWBC 241856
 QPFPFD
  
 QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
 NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
 156 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2009
  
  
 PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
 VALID NOV 25/0000 UTC THRU NOV 26/0000 UTC
 REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
  
  
 DAY 1...
 
 ...GTLKS/OH VLY...
 THE LATEST MDL SOLNS CONT TO BE IN VRY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THEIR
 HANDLING OF THE CLOSED LOW OVR THE MID MS VLYA TTM..WITH ALL
 LIFTING IT MORE QUICKLY ENEWD THRU THE GTLKS DURG THE PD AS THE
 UPSTREAM SYS NOW VCNTY OF ALTA/SASK DIGS INTO THE MIDWEST BY WED
 EVE.  NEITHER OF THESE SYSTEMS WL HAVE A LOT OF MSTR TO WORK
 WITH..AND THE GULF OF MEX WL RMN CUT-OFF..BUT STG MID/UPR LVL
 FORCING SHLD COMPENSATE FOR THE MARGINAL MSTR TO SUPPORT AN AREA
 OF LGT TO MDT PCPN FM THE MIDWEST ENEWD THRU THE
 GTLKS..PREDOMINATELY ON THE N AND E SIDES OF THE FEATURES.  AS
 PREVIOUS FCSTR DID..TOOK A BLEND OF NAM/GFS/GFSP QPF SOLNS GIVEN
 VRY SIMILAR MASS FIELD SOLNS.
 
 
 ...PAC NW...
 POWERFUL ERN PAC/SRN GULF OF AK STORM SYS WL MAKE STEADY EWD
 PROGRESS THIS PD..FINALLY PUSHING THE ASSOCTD CDFNT INTO THE PAC
 NW TWDS THE END OF THE PD.  LONGER DURATION OF STG LOW LVL ONSHORE
 FLOW AND HVIEST PCPN WL RMN N OF THE U.S. INTO B.C..BUT UP TO
 40KTS OF SWLY H85 FLO FINALLY MAKING IT INTO NWRN WA LTR WED MRNG
 FOLLOWED BY PASSAGE OF CDFNT LTR IN THE AFTN SHLD SUPPORT
 INCREASING PCPN OVR NWRN WA..AND ESP OVR THE OLYMPICS..WHERE SOME
 GTR THAN 1 INCH WTR EQUIVALENTS ARE LIKELY.  MDL QPFS WERE FAIRLY
 SIMILAR..BUT DID LEAN TWDS THE SLGTLY HVIER NAM AMTS A LTL FARTHER
 S ALG THE WA CST AS COMPARED TO THE GFS.
 
 
 ...FL...
 STILL QUITE A FEW PROBS HERE BTWN THE MDL QPFS..AS MDLS SEEM TO BE
 HAVING TRBL HANDLING SRN BRANCH S/WV ENERGY MOVG THRU THE FL PENIN
 WHICH RESULTS IN SIGNIFICANT QPF DIFFS.  IN ADDITION..IT APPEARS
 THE GFS IS SUFFERING FM FEEDBACK PROBS..MAKING ITS QPF SOLN
 SUSPECT AT BEST.  THIS IS NOT A VRY HI CONFIDENCE FCST..BUT WL
 LEAN TWDS THE NAM SOLN ATTM..WITH INCREASING CNVCTN DVLPG ERY IN
 PD N OF OLD FNTL BNDRY WHERE SRN BRANCH S/WV ENERGY WL ALSO BE
 MOVG THRU..AND WITH CNVCTN LTR IN THE PD ENHANCED BY SEWD MOVG
 CDFNT ASSOCTD WITH SOME HGT FALLS FM NRN STREAM ENERGY MOVG THRU
 THE ERN STATES.  SOME REASONABLY HI PWS WL BE IN PLACE..AOA 1.75
 INCHES..SO SOME BRIEFLY INTENSE RNFL RATES ARE LIKELY..AS ARE SOME
 LCLY HVY RNFL AMTS THIS PD..MAINLY OVR NRN AND CNTRL PTNS OF THE
 FL PENIN.  WENT CLOSE TO THE NAM LOCATION OF THE HVIER RAINS..BUT
 DIDN`T GO QUITE AS HVY AS IT..AND AGAIN GAVE VRY LTL WEIGHT TO THE
 GFS SOLN GIVEN ITS POTNL FEEDBACK PROBS.
 
 TERRY
 
 GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
  
 24HR QP VT 26/00Z
  0.01 524251 508215 506211 508208 511207 515209 517214 519218 
       522221 528222 533220 536217 537210 536205 534199 532193 
       527183 521177 514171 506166 501164 496165 493166 492172 
       498179 502182 504185 505193 502200 499203 494203 489200 
       474207 471209 470213 471217 472220 475220 480220 481223 
       480227 477227 475229 471229 468232 464231 461233 461238 
       458248 454257 451263 449267 447272 446279 448288 453295 
       457300 462303 467304 469306 469314 471318 476320 478320 
       486317 492313 506303 510299 
  0.01 498828 494809 490795 484781 478772 474768 470766 461762 
       444755 435752 427748 419745 416744 410744 405745 400748 
       391752 385753 382752 371751 367753 362756 364762 366765 
       373772 382777 382781 381784 378788 376793 377799 383796 
       391788 395784 400780 410779 420775 421781 419784 416786 
       410788 407792 405797 405802 392810 388813 385817 385823 
       385827 384829 375835 357847 349853 342860 338863 335867 
       335878 331882 328887 329890 332894 336894 340894 352890 
       357889 364888 373887 384887 390889 393892 395897 395904 
       396917 400927 406934 420947 429953 430959 433968 439977 
       446984 448985 448989 445992 443994 442999 443003 445007 
       450015 454019 460021 469016 474016 478020 482023 485024 
       492018 502013 504008 505999 503990 500986 496982 493977 
       490971 487967 480961 478958 476953 476944 477935 479930 
       482927 488924 496918 501913 504907 506903 508898 507890 
       504887 500884 498881 498876 499866 500852 499836 498828 
  0.01 494149 492144 489140 486135 480135 478133 472132 469135 
       468138 471142 474141 480141 484143 486147 488151 491151 
       494149 
  0.01 470111 471106 470106 468106 468111 470111 470111 
  0.01 471094 470093 467093 467094 470094 471094 
  0.01 461085 461078 461072 458064 456059 453057 450056 448052 
       446043 443043 440044 439049 437052 434055 434057 436059 
       441064 445068 447080 450085 459087 461085 
  0.01 356752 356748 353746 350747 342752 326764 309774 300780 
       295782 290784 273788 268788 265787 259786 253786 248788 
       241794 237799 235809 234815 234824 238831 244836 254840 
       259847 263853 269858 276859 286853 310831 321818 330804 
       336788 347774 351768 354762 356756 356752 
  0.01 263960 261955 256955 251957 246959 241964 236970 234979 
       234985 236990 239996 245002 253005 257003 258997 257988 
       258975 260968 263960 
  0.25 524261 521253 517243 510229 505221 500215 495213 491213 
       488217 487224 485233 480234 476232 470236 467244 465250 
       466256 471262 474265 470276 470282 473285 476287 478291 
       483295 487299 491300 498299 504296 511292 
  0.25 474804 471796 468792 465791 458792 457799 460807 461815 
       458820 454823 449830 447836 444840 440842 423849 410859 
       406864 404867 405873 410879 413886 414894 416905 416911 
       417916 422920 428923 433928 438932 444934 453933 458929 
       462925 464922 466914 460912 455905 454898 456892 458887 
       460882 462879 466871 470854 472845 473836 472824 472816 
       474808 474804 
  0.25 318804 318799 316795 313792 308791 302791 289796 278799 
       271802 268805 260814 258815 256811 257806 260802 259798 
       257796 252798 248801 245805 242810 241815 242820 244824 
       248827 252827 257828 265835 276849 283847 287843 295836 
       303827 311818 315810 318804 
  0.50 522265 521258 518251 511237 504225 500220 497218 493219 
       491222 489227 488234 485237 483237 476234 472239 470249 
       474253 476256 478261 477267 477273 478277 485288 491292 
       499293 509289 516283 
  0.50 434903 440892 443883 444873 440870 436874 433881 427888 
       420889 418895 419905 420908 424910 430907 434903 
  0.50 445916 446912 444908 443907 442909 442913 444916 445917 
       445916 
  0.50 311810 311805 310802 307798 302797 298798 288801 281804 
       277807 269815 267820 267824 269827 272831 274838 275841 
       278842 282842 287840 292835 299828 307819 310814 311810 
  1.00 518273 520267 520263 518255 511241 504230 500226 496224 
       494226 492237 491239 487240 482243 479237 476239 477243 
       480245 481249 482257 482267 484273 489279 493283 500288 
       506286 510282 515278 518273 
  1.00 303810 298807 292807 288807 284810 280814 277817 276821 
       278825 279830 279834 281837 285836 289834 293830 298824 
       301818 303813 303810 
  1.50 516272 518266 517259 515252 510244 506236 500231 497231 
       496236 494242 492244 488244 486246 484252 485256 486265 
       487270 490274 495280 499283 504284 509279 512275 515274 
       516272 
  1.50 289830 295819 296812 294811 290812 287816 285823 285829 
       289830 
  2.00 516267 515257 512250 508242 503237 499237 499239 499244 
       498248 489246 487249 487255 489265 491271 496278 500281 
       504282 508276 514271 516267 
  3.00 512266 514261 512256 509250 507248 504253 502257 497255 
       494252 490252 490259 492266 494270 497273 502278 505277 
       505275 508269 512266 
  4.00 503271 502266 501264 499260 496258 493257 493258 493259 
       493262 495267 496268 497270 500272 503271  
  
 

 
 
 

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