FXUS66 KLOX 241719 
  AFDLOX 
   
  SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONAREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
This National Weather Service
product is intended to provide a
well-reasoned discussion of the
meteorological thinking which went
into the preparation of the Zone
Forecast Product. The forecaster
will try to focus on the most
particular challenges of the
forecast. The text will be written
in plain language or in proper
contractions. At the end of the
discussion, there will be a list of
all advisor...
Click for More... 
  NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
An agency of the Federal Government
within the Department of Commerce,
National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Click for More... LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CACA
California
Click for More... 
  900 AM PSTPST
Pacific Standard Time
Click for More... TUE NOV 24 2009 
   
  .SYNOPSIS... 
   
  IT WILL BE CLEAR AND WINDY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY WITH DAY TIME  
  TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE COASTS AND VALLEYS. THE WEATHER  
  WILL ABRUPTLY CHANGE FRIDAY AS THE MARINE LAYER WILL REFORM AND   
  TEMPERATURES WILL FALL 10 TO 15 DEGREES OVER MOST AREAS. IT WILL  
  REMAIN COOL SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WARMING TREND STARTS SUNDAY. 
   
  && 
   
  .SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...AN UPDATE IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.  
  GUIDANCE INITIALIZED WELL WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGERIDGE
An elongated area of relatively
high atmospheric pressure; the
opposite of trough.
Click for More... OF HIGH  
  PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA AND CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS. 
  WILL ISSUE AN UPDATE AROUND NOON TO REMOVE THE HEADLINES AS THE  
  NORTHEAST WINDS SUBSIDE. 
   
  THE FOLLOWING FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT  
   
  KDAG GRADGRAD
Gradient- A rate of change with
respect to distance of a variable
quantity, as temperature or
pressure, in the direction of
maximum change.
Click for More... IS NRNR
Near
Click for More... -6 AND KBFL GRADGRAD
Gradient- A rate of change with
respect to distance of a variable
quantity, as temperature or
pressure, in the direction of
maximum change.
Click for More... IS NEAR -5. A LITTLE COLD AIR  
  ADVECTIONADVECTION
(Abbrev. ADVCTN)- Transport of an
atmospheric property by the wind.
Click for More... IS ALSO COMING IN FROM THE NENE
Northeast
Click for More... AND THIS HAS SET UP A GOOD  
  OFFSHORE EVENT WITH MANY GUSTS BETWEEN 45 AND 55 MPH REPORTED IN THE  
  AREAS SUSCEPTIBLE TO NENE
Northeast
Click for More... WINDS. MAXMAX
Maximum - (usually in reference to
temperature)
Click for More... TEMPSTEMPS
Temperatures
Click for More... WILL BE MANY DEGREES ABOVE  
  NORMAL TODAY FOR THE COASTS AND VALLEYS BUT NOT NEAR RECORD LEVELS  
  AS THE THKNS IS ONLY 563 DMDM
Decameters (1 DM = 10 M)

Click for More.... STILL LOOK FOR MANY READING NEAR 80  
  DEGREES TODAY WITH THE WARMEST READINGS ON THE COAST WHERE  
  DOWNSLOPING COMPRESSIONAL HEATING WILL HAVE THE GREATEST EFFECT. MAXMAX
Maximum - (usually in reference to
temperature)
Click for More...  
  TEMPSTEMPS
Temperatures
Click for More... OVER THE MTNSMTNS
Mountains
Click for More... AND INLAND AREAS WILL BE MUCH COOLER. THE WINDS  
  WILL SUBSIDE TO BELOW ADVISORYADVISORY
Highlights special weather
conditions that are less serious
than a warning. They are for events
that may cause significant
inconvenience, and if caution is
not exercised, it could lead to
situations that may threaten life
and/or property.
Click for More... LEVELS LATER THIS MORNING. 
   
  THE WINDS WILL AGAIN PICK UP TONIGHT. THEY WILL BE WEAKER THAN  
  TONIGHT AS THE GRADS WILL BE A LITTLE WEAK AND THERE NO LONGER BE  
  ANY COLD AIR ADVECTIONADVECTION
(Abbrev. ADVCTN)- Transport of an
atmospheric property by the wind.
Click for More.... THE WINDS WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO ADVISORYADVISORY
Highlights special weather
conditions that are less serious
than a warning. They are for events
that may cause significant
inconvenience, and if caution is
not exercised, it could lead to
situations that may threaten life
and/or property.
Click for More...  
  CRITERIA. LOWS TEMPSTEMPS
Temperatures
Click for More... TONIGHT WILL BE VERY TRICKY WITH THE CLEAR  
  SKIES AND DRY AIR ANY WIND SHELTERED AREAS WILL SEE VERY COLD  
  READINGS WHILE WINDY AREAS WILL SEE READINGS 20 TO 25 DEGREES WARMER. 
   
  WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH LIKE TODAY JUST A LITTLE LESS WINDY WITH MAXMAX
Maximum - (usually in reference to
temperature)
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  TEMPSTEMPS
Temperatures
Click for More... WITHIN A DEGREE OF TODAYS ACROSS THE COASTS AND VALLEY. THE  
  INLAND AREAS WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES SINCE THERE WILL BE NO MORE  
  COLD AIR ADVECTIONADVECTION
(Abbrev. ADVCTN)- Transport of an
atmospheric property by the wind.
Click for More.... 
   
  CHAMBER OF COMMERCE THANKSGIVING DAY. SOME MILD NON ADVISORYADVISORY
Highlights special weather
conditions that are less serious
than a warning. They are for events
that may cause significant
inconvenience, and if caution is
not exercised, it could lead to
situations that may threaten life
and/or property.
Click for More...  
  OFFSHORE WINDS IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE FAVORED LOCATIONS. SUNNYSUNNY
When there are no opaque (not
transparent) clouds. Same as Clear.
Click for More...  
  SKIES AND MAXMAX
Maximum - (usually in reference to
temperature)
Click for More... TEMPSTEMPS
Temperatures
Click for More... IN THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE COASTAL AND VALLEY  
  LOCATIONS. 
   
  .LONG TERM (FRI-MON)... 
  THE ECEC
ECMWF Forecast Model
Click for More... AND THE GFSGFS
Global Forecast System - One of the
operational forecast models run at
NCEP. The GFS is run four times
daily, with forecast output out to
384 hours.
Click for More... ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE EXTENDED  
  PERIOD (AT LEAST ACROSS THE WEST COAST - THE EAST COAST NOT SO MUCH)  
  AND DO NOT DEVIATE FROM THE PREVIOUS THINKING. A DRY FRONTFRONT
A boundary or transition zone
between two air masses of different
density, and thus (usually) of
different temperature. A moving
front is named according to the
advancing air mass, e.g., cold
front if colder air is advancing.
Click for More... WILL MOVE  
  ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY SWITCHING THE OFFSHORE FLOWOFFSHORE FLOW
Occurs when air moves from land to
sea, and is usually associated with
dry weather.
Click for More... TO ONSHORE FLOWONSHORE FLOW
Occurs when air moves from sea to
land, and is usually associated
wtih increased moisture.
Click for More...  
  AND DROPPING HGTS BY MANY DMDM
Decameters (1 DM = 10 M)

Click for More.... THE NAMNAM
The operational North Amercian Meso
(NAM, formerly Eta, currently the
same as the WRF) is run four times
per day (00,06,12,18Z), all cycles
run to 84-h.
Click for More... DOES NOT SUPPORT AS MUCH OF A  
  MARINE LAYER AS THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS IN IT BUT WILL HOLD THE  
  LINE FOR NOW. BIG THING IS THE DROP IN TEMPSTEMPS
Temperatures
Click for More... WHICH WILL BE ANYWHERE  
  FROM 10 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAYS VALUES. 
   
  SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER COOL DAY AS HGTS LOWER EVEN MORE. 
   
  RIDGING...OFFSHORE FLOWOFFSHORE FLOW
Occurs when air moves from land to
sea, and is usually associated with
dry weather.
Click for More... AND WARMING ARE STILL FORECAST FOR NEXT  
  SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  
   
  && 
   
  .AVIATION... 
   
  24/1130Z. 
   
  VFRVFR
Visual Flight Rules - Usually
denotes clear skies or ceilings
greater than 3000 ft and
visibilities greater than 6 statute
miles.
Click for More... CONDS THROUGH TONIGHT. MODERATE WINDS THROUGH THE PASSES AND  
  CANYONS WILL CAUSE MDTMDT
1.Moderate 2.Mountain Daylight Time
Click for More... ISOLDISOLD
Isolated
Click for More... SVRSVR
1. Severe
Click for More... TURBC IN AND AROUND HIER TRRNTRRN
Terrain
Click for More.... 
   
  KLAX...VERY GOOD CONFIDENCE IN CAVUCAVU
Clear or Scattered Clouds
(visibility greater than 10 mi.)
Click for More... TAFTAF
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast
Click for More.... 
   
  KBUR...VERY GOOD CONFIDENCE IN CAVUCAVU
Clear or Scattered Clouds
(visibility greater than 10 mi.)
Click for More... CIG/VIS FCSTFCST
Forecast
Click for More.... WINDS WILL BE  
  ERRATIC THROUGH THE PERIOD. PERIODS OF MDT-ISOLD SVRSVR
1. Severe
Click for More... TURBC SFC-070  
  AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEARWIND SHEAR
The rate at which wind velocity
changes from point to point in a
given direction (as, vertically).
The shear can be speed shear (where
speed changes between the two
points, but not direction),
direction shear (where direction
changes between the two points, but
not speed) or a combination of the
two.
Click for More... THROUGH WED MORNING. 
   
  && 
   
  .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... 
  WIND ADVISORYWIND ADVISORY
Sustained winds 30 mph and greater
or frequent wind gusts 35 mph or
greater. These thresholds are
slightly higher for desert and
mountain areas.
Click for More... (SEE LAXNPWLOX). 
  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORYSMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
(SCA) - An advisory issued for
sustained wind speeds or frequent
gusts greater than 20 kt but less
than 34 kts. An advisory is also
issued for hazardous seas of 10 ft
or greater. Any vessel that may be
adversely affected by Small Craft
Advisory criteria should be
considered a small craft. Other
considerations include the
experience of the vessel operator,
and the type, overall size, and sea
worthi...
Click for More... (SEE LAXMWWLOX). 
   
  && 
   
  
 
   
  PUBLIC...RORKE/30 
  AVIATION...KAPLAN 
  SYNOPSIS...ASR 
   
  WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES