AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

 
 FXUS66 KPQR 092246
 AFDPQR
 
 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
 246 PM PST TUE FEB  9 2010
 
 .SYNOPSIS.. AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN 
 MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY AS AN INCOMING SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE IN THE
 AFTERNOON... THEN THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AFTER WEDNESDAY 
 A SERIES OF SYSTEMS BRINGS RAIN TO THE AREA INTO NEXT WEEK. LOOK FOR
 A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT
 THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM FRIDAY.
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 .SHORT TERM...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE RAPIDLY CLEARING FROM THE SOUTH
 WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND THE SOUTH COAST RANGE...OPENING THE DOOR FOR
 MORE FOG FORMATION LATER TONIGHT AHEAD OF INCOMING CLOUDS. MODELS
 MOVE A FRONT ONSHORE ALONG THE NORTH COAST LATE MORNING
 WEDNESDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION SPREADING INLAND BY LATE AFTERNOON.
 THE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE SYSTEM AND IT`S PROGRESSION THROUGH
 LATE WED NIGHT. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OVER THE AREA THU MORNING
 AND THAT`S WHEN MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT ON TIMING AND
 PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THE THURSDAY SYSTEM IS WARM AND WET. THE GFS
 TENDS TO SWING IT THROUGH THE NORTHWEST A LOT FASTER WITH MORE QPF...
 WHEREAS THE ECMWF LIMITS PRECIPITATION MORE AS THE WARM FRONT
 RUNS ABOUT 6 HOURS BEHIND THE GFS.
   
 AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT. SNOW
 LEVELS REMAIN ABOVE THE PASSES AGAIN...FALLING TO NEAR PASS LEVEL
 THURSDAY NIGHT AS PRECIPITATION ENDS. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO
 THE COAST AS WELL...BUT WINDS WILL PROBABLY STAY BELOW HIGH WIND
 CRITERIA. KWELSON
 
 .LONG TERM...AN VERY WET AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE 
 THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH SYSTEMS EVERY 24 TO 36 HOURS. INDIVIDUAL 
 SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA RATHER QUICKLY. AFTER BRIEF 
 CLEARING LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN TO 
 THE COAST AND INLAND SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL 
 ARRIVE LATE MONDAY. BROWN
 
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 .AVIATION...AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS IN THE CENTRAL AND S WILLAMETTE 
 VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE EARLY THIS EVENING BUT 
 SHOULD NOT COMPLETELY DISSIPATE. PATCHY TO AREAS IFR/MVFR ARE LIKELY 
 TO RETURN LATER TONIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS WITH THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVE. 
 EXPECT SOME MVFR CEILINGS WED AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT ESPECIALLY 
 NEAR THE COAST.
 
 KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING. A 50 PCT CHANCE OF 
 IFR IN FOG RETURNING AROUND 11Z BUT WILL BE COMPETING WITH 
 INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. 
 
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 .MARINE...SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10 FT WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH 
 WED. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE WATERS BRINGING THE 
 POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL GALES BY WED EVENING AND STRONGER GALES BY 
 THU AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL ALSO BE BUILDING ABOVE 10 FT. ADDITIONAL 
 FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL TRACK INTO THE AREA FRI AND SAT CONTINUING A 
 MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN.
 
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 .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 OR...NONE.
 WA...NONE.
 PZ...GALE WATCH FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE WED EVENING
 THROUGH THU EVENING.
 
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