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FXUS66 KEKA 241118
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
320 AM PST TUE NOV 24 2009
.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BRINGING DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER.
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE THANKSGIVING DAY...BRINGING
THE THREAT FOR RAIN AND SNOW ABOVE 4000 FEET. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT
THE REGION FRIDAY WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...THE MAIN FORECAST CONSIDERATION CONTINUES TO BE THE
NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SLATED FOR LATE TURKEY DAY/EARLY FRIDAY.
AT 3 AM PST...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRACKING TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE
WAS BRINGING VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS TO THE FORECAST AREA BUT
LITTLE ELSE. CLOUDINESS SHOULD THIN OUT DURING THE MORNING WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY WITH A
PLEASANT DAY TEMPERATURE-WISE. THE PACIFIC VAPOR PIX SHOWS THE NEXT
TROUGH...SITUATED WELL NORTH OF HAWAII CURRENTLY...THAT WILL
EVENTUALLY IMPACT THE REGION. AS THE CENTRAL LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA IT WILL SPIN OFF SEVERAL DISTURBANCES
AND HELP BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE OVER CALIFORNIA ON THANKSGIVING DAY.
TODAY`S MODEL RUNS ARE PERHAPS 6 HOURS FASTER IN BRINGING
PRECIPITATION TO NORTHWEST CAL THAN THOSE FROM YESTERDAY. EVEN
SO...MOST PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNSET OR LATER THANKSGIVING
DAY EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST NORTH OF THE CAPE WHERE LIGHT RAIN MAY
BEGIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATING SNOW LEVELS WILL STILL
REMAIN ABOVE ALL OUR MAJOR PASSES SO THERE SHOULD BE NO WINTER
WEATHER TRAVEL CONCERNS FOR THOSE HEADING DOWN TO THE BAY AREA OR
INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD END FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...WHICH SHOULD
PROVIDE ANOTHER RESPITE FROM THE WET SEASON FOR THE WEEKEND. BURGER
&&
.AVIATION...LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS ARE BRINGING VFR TO ALL TAF SITES
THIS MORNING. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS TO THE TAF SITES TODAY. VFR ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON. STROZ
&&
.MARINE...BUOY OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING SHOW A MIXED NORTHWEST
SWELL, NEAR 12 SECONDS AND NEAR 15 SECONDS. THE SWELL NEAR 12
SECONDS WILL BECOME DOMINANT IN THE UPCOMING HOURS AND WILL BUILD TO
NEAR 10 FT. THEREFORE, A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IS UP OVER ALL OF
THE ZONES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH WEDNESDAY, PRODUCING LIGHT NORTH WINDS. A
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE THROUGH THE WATERS
THROUGH MIDWEEK. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS LATE THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO NEAR GALE FORCE AND REMAIN GUSTY AS
THEY VEER TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. SEAS WILL ALSO BECOME
HAZARDOUS WITH THE MAIN IMPACTS BEING WIND WAVES PRE FRONT AND A
LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL POST FRONT. IT`S STILL TOO EARLY TO ISSUE
WATCHES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. STROZ
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 3 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR
ALL WATERS.
&&
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA
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